The Survivors

 57-58% of Americans born in 1948 are alive today as the "best guess" scenario, with the range being 54-61% from worst case to best case


But we benefit from socio-economic advantages.

There are no reliable stats for the current survival rate of people born in 1948 who were still alive in 1966, and have prep-school educations, but we can estimate that from income data.

(1) Per the 2020 census, the nationwide survival rate for people in the top 20% of wage earners who were born in 1948 was 15 percentage points higher than the average for the nation. (85% versus 70%). I don't know whether our average income would be in the 80th percentile or above, but I'm going to go with that as a reasonable guess.

(2) Approximately 4% of those born in 1948 died before 1966. Our group includes only one such person (Mike Hughto)

So we are starting about 19 points above the average. (Again, that's a ballpark estimate).

Adding those 19 points to the average for the whole 1948 set (54-61%) places our expected survival rate at 73-80%. You might be able to bump it up just a hair because some of us were born in 1949, but the impact of that small group is statistically insignificant, so I think we should just ignore it.

Our actual survival rate is 79-80%, depending on how many of the MIA are deceased, so we are at the high end.of expectations (yay, us), but not outside the range.


Here are some specifics:


The Large Parishes (20 or more students):

St. Thomas the Apostle - 49 in the yearbook, 40 survive - 82%

St. Ambrose - 31 of 39  - 79%

St. Cecilia  - 31 of 35 - 89%

St. Margaret Mary - 22 of 30 - 73%

Christ the King -21 of 30 - 70%

St. Andrew - 19 of 26 - 73%

St. Stanislaus - 22 of 26 - 85%

St. Rita - 19 of 20 - 95%


The Medium Parishes (9 to 19 students):

OLPH - 13 of 16 - 81%

St. Salome - 13 of 15 -87%

Holy Redeemer - 11 of 13 - 85%

Corpus Christi - 9 of 12 - 75%

St. Michael - 11 of 12 - 92%

St. James - 8 of 12 - 67%

Holy Trinity - 7 of 11 - 64%

Annunciation - 9 of 11 - 82%

St. John the Evangelist - 7 of 10 - 70%

St. Francis Xavier - 9 of 10 - 90%

Blessed Sacrament - 8 of 9 - 89%



With the smaller groups, the numbers don't offer enough degrees of freedom to make sense. For example, Lesia was the only student from Epiphany, and she has passed, so they have a 0% survival rate.  There were only three students from St. Philip Neri, and John Archetko is the only survivor (33%)


Other stats:


Only 31 women have passed (85% survival) , compared to 52 men (75% survival.)


That gender stat makes St. Rita's survival rate absolutely astounding, because 17 of the 20 St. Rita students were men. There must be something healthy in that Webster air. Realistically, they have a 100% survival rate, because Bill Clements is the only one lost from that group, and he didn't grow up in Webster. He was a late transfer to Kearney from some place in NYC.

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